Russian military aggression against Ukraine is not really about Ukraine per se. It is all about Putin reasserting a Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union territories, and telling NATO to keep out. It was preceded by several weeks of fruitless but theatrical negotiations with Ukranian and NATO leaders about whether they were going to cave and give Putin whatever he wanted in neutering Ukraine and backing NATO away from Putin’s claimed Russian sphere of influence. When these went nowhere, Putin dropped all pretense and commenced his military aggression against Ukraine to bring it unwillingly back into the Russian fold and to send a loud and clear message to NATO. Putin thought the European members were too complacent and disorganized to do anything, and America too fractured by partisan warfare and too tired of unproductive overseas wars to do anything more than complain.

Wow! What a massive miscalculation by Putin! Not only are the Ukranians successfully fighting back with everything they’ve got, Putin’s action has managed to re-energize NATO, the EU, and the Atlantic alliance to an extent not seen in 30 years. Germany has finally recognized the dangerous nature of Putin’s Russia and agreed to start funding its own rearmament, and all of NATO, including its own autocratic countries, supported the heavy sanctions imposed on Russia and its leaders. Even the traditionally independent and neutral countries of Switzerland and Sweden supported the sanctions! To make matters worse for Russia, all the NATO members, and even countries outside NATO, are sending arms and aid to Ukraine.

Putin has even managed to temporarily diminish the extreme partisanship in U.S. politics as members of both parties coalesce in opposition to Russian aggression and support of Ukraine. Finally, Putin’s aggression has thrown a lifeline to the Biden Administration, if it pivots (at least temporarily) away from its so far futile efforts to pass major social legislation, and embarks on a defense build up to counter Russian (and future Chinese) aggression. The country will support such a move because of the widespread public horror at what Russia is doing to Ukraine, and it might even prevent a Republican takeover of Congress this fall.

However, as satisfying as all these results have been, they will largely have been futile if Russia succeeds in taking over all or substantially all of Ukraine through its military aggression. Furthermore, the U.S. and NATO bear considerable responsibility for Ukraine being in the predicament it is in. When the idea of expanding NATO to include some or all of the countries spun off of the Soviet Union when it collapsed in the early 1990’s, America’s dean of Russian and Soviet studies, George Kennan, advised against it because it was such an affront to Russia that it might lead to a new cold war. Putin demonstrated the accuracy of Kennan’s predictions when he repeatedly and angrily denounced NATO’s stated intention to allow a series of prior Soviet Union countries to join NATO.

When it became apparent in 2008 that Georgia and Ukraine might be considered for NATO membership, Russia acted by taking over part of Georgia and forcing out its pro-western leadership. America and NATO complained and imposed some sanctions, but this had little effect. Emboldened by the weak western response to its earlier action, in 2014, Russia seized the Crimea and its valuable seaport and Naval base from Ukraine and helped engineer a war in eastern regions of Ukraine by pro- Russian elements seeking to split off from Ukraine. Again, the West objected but took little effective action. Russia’s current invasion of Ukraine followed as Putin thought America and NATO would object but again take little effective action to counter the culmination of Putin’s moves to prevent Ukraine from turning its back on Russia and solidifying its efforts to tie its future to Europe.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is ugly and brutal and an attempted takeover of a sovereign state by force. It is also in clear and unwarranted violation of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances of 1994 under which Ukraine agreed to give up the last of its considerable store of strategic nuclear weapons in return for agreement by Russia and several other countries, including the U.S., that they would not attack Ukraine. Putin can not be allowed to succeed in his aggression, not only for the sake of Ukraine and its brave people, but to ensure that Russia’s imperial ambitions under Putin are blunted for good.

We have to be mindful that actions of ours now do not lead to a nuclear confrontation with Russia, but we must be willing to take some risk of that in order to effectively counter Russia’s aggressive moves, give Ukraine a real chance to survive Russia’s increasingly brutal onslaught, and send a strong message to China. Steps we ought to be taking probably incude the following:

• Accelerate the supply of needed military equipment, including late model anti-aircraft and anti-ship weapons, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine as well as promoting and supplying volunteer fighters.
• Drastically increase troop and fighter jet deployments to eastern front areas of Poland and the Baltic countries as well as any other NATO countries subject to Russian threat. A few hundred troops is not a credible defense force!
• Either get Turkish agreement for NATO ships to enter the Black Sea or take steps to change or abrogate the 1936 Montreux Convention which gives Russia effective control of the Black Sea.
• Move NATO naval forces into the Eastern Mediterranean and beef them up.
• Establish a secure supply corridor for military equipment and supplies, volunteers and humanitarian aid into Ukraine defended by strong anti-aircraft weapons and jet fighters. Announce and maintain a ”no fly ” zone over this supply corridor.

Thus far, President Biden has for the most part handled this Ukraine crisis admirably. He has rallied all of NATO behind truly onerous sanctions on Russia and finally brought them around to a broad consensus on opposing Russian aggression. He has also orchestrated fairly broad U.S. agreement by both parties of the need to stand up to Russian aggression. But his one failing which must be corrected is his categorical statements that we will not get into a war with Russia. This only encourages Putin to take more aggressive and brutal actions. Stop talking about what we won’t do, and start talking more about what we will do, or may do to assist Ukraine if Putin doesn’t pull back from his war. Use back channels to damp down any talk of nuclear confrontation. Putin may continue to threaten to use weapons of mass destruction but he knows and must be made to know that this is a road to oblivion for Russia. Like most bullies, he will back down when a formidable opponent stands up to him. Russia has repeatedly demonstrated it does not deserve to have a ”sphere of influence” anywhere and it’s time the world made Putin realize it!