The Tucker Report

UKRAINE AND THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION – FATES INEXTRICABLY LINKED

Given the way it came about, it is deeply ironic to say the least, but it is becoming ever more evident that the fates of Ukraine and President Biden are inextricably linked. President Trump and the Republican Party were responsible for trying to establish the link in the first place as they sought to undermine Biden’s candidacy for President by claiming he (and his son Hunter Biden) were involved in Ukranian corruption. They of course failed in that effort (at least so far) which instead led to the 2nd Democratic failed effort to impeach President Trump. And, of course, contrary to Trump’s strenuous efforts which continue to this day, Joe Biden was elected President defeating Donald Trump.

But the linkage between Ukraine and Biden was reinvigorated by Donald Trump’s old buddy Vladimir Putin when, without any cause or justification, he invaded Ukraine with the intention of forcing it to become Russia’s vassal state instead of a potentially successful independent democratic state oriented towards Europe. The Biden Administration has led the forceful Western response to Russian aggression against Ukraine, imposing heavy economic sanctions on Russia, and supplying billions of dollars of military and other aid to Ukraine. Biden has repeatedly stressed American support for Ukrainian independence and against Russia succeeding in any way with its military aggression.

For awhile, the Ukrainian military were successful in thwarting Russia’s attacks on its major cities, but recently, as Russia shifted its focus to the Donbas region in Ukraine’s east, the tide seems to be turning. Russia is taking over more and more Ukranian territory and has established a link between the Russian puppet regime in the Crimea and the eastern regions of Ukraine taken over by Russian forces. Ukranian casualties are high and their military resistance seems to be weakening. Russia has successfully blockaded the major Ukranian port of Odessa thereby preventing Ukraine from shipping abroad large quantities of wheat which many areas of the world desperately need. Without further and far more vigorous Western support, Ukraine is in serious danger of losing its battle against Russian aggression. But even more importantly for us, after the Afghanistan debacle, the U.S. cannot afford another black mark on its record by losing yet another overseas war that it has made a significant commitment to- particularly to Russia!

At the same time, Joe Biden’s approval rating with the American public, and the chances of Democrats holding onto any part of their Congressional control, are fairly quickly slipping away. Biden’s domestic agenda is largely at a standstill, dozens of people every week are victims of senseless gun violence, his Justice Department is apparently doing nothing about Trump’s sustained efforts to thwart the 2020 presidential election and rig future elections, the economy is rocked by inflation and apparently headed for recession, the stock market is in a freefall and the Supreme Court is about to overturn Roe v. Wade. The Biden Administration and liberal democracy looks like its headed for a major defeat about the same time as is Ukraine.

Joe Biden and the Democrats seem to be at a loss as to what to do to turn their situation around. The bipartisan gun bill in Congress is like applying a spot bandage to a severed artery. Travelling to Saudi Arabia to plead for them to open the oil spigot will be similarly completely ineffective in controlling inflation. Sending smiley old Joe out into the country to plead his case isn’t going to change many minds. But what will is dramatic action and leadership, and Ukraine offers the perfect opportunity. The major question, of course, is whether Joe Biden is really capable of delivering dramatic action and leadership!

In years past, when Presidents were in trouble and an election was impending, what was the favorite game plan? Why, a little overseas war or international incident. Many studies have confirmed that US Presidents often increase their popularity at the onset of wars or other security crises. It’s the “rally round the flag” effect. The beauty of the Ukraine war opportunity is that the war is already on-going and we are already involved in it as a cheerleader and supplier of arms and equipment. Furthermore, to make it even better, both the American people and the Republican Party are already strongly supportive of Ukraine and antagonistic to Russia. So the question is, can we find a strategy which the American public will support and which will substantially increase Ukraine’s chances of actually defeating the Russian invasion?

In my prior post on this subject (“Ukraine: Russian-NATO Showdown”), I suggested some moves the U.S. could take. Following up on a recent editorial in the New York Times by Bret Stephens, I think probably the most saleable strategy for the NATO forces to take a more active role is to send a strong Naval task force into the Black Sea to force open the port of Odessa from its Russian blockade in order ostensibly to allow the shipment abroad of all the Ukrainian wheat being stored there which is so necessary in parts of the world to stave off starvation. This depends on Turkey which largely controls access to the Black Sea, but Turkey is a part of NATO and its current economic problems could benefit from allied economic assistance. If we can get naval forces into the Black Sea, this might well lead to armed conflict between NATO and Russian forces but allied naval forces should easily prevail. It could be followed up by allied naval pressure on the Crimea which would take Russian pressure off of Ukranian forces. At the same time, the U.S. and NATO forces should establish a secure supply corridor for military and humanitarian equipment and supplies well into Ukraine defended by jet fighters and anti-aircraft weapons. We could also send armed troops to defend the supplies and train the Ukranians in using western equipment. All of these steps would lend major assistance to Ukraine in its efforts to resist Russian aggression.

I think not only the American people but the Republicans in Congress will support all of this. It would not only go a long way to bolstering Ukranian forces and would send a far clearer message to Putin that he is not going to win this war. Getting the U.S. and NATO forces actively engaged even defensively against the Russians increases the risks of nuclear war. But the risk is manageable and must be run if we are ever going to confront and stop Russian military aggresssion. Russia is unlikely to want to go toe to toe with the U.S. and NATO forces as he is almost certain to lose. If President Biden can lead this country and its NATO allies into taking action somewhat along these lines, the fates of Biden and Ukraine will be much more favorably linked than they are now.

THT