Wow! No summer political doldrums around here. It has been an extremely eventful summer and it is still not over. One major event after another has our political heads spinning as we try to figure out what it all means to a country in the greatest political crisis since the Civil War. Let’s take the above events one at a time and try to assess their meaning and importance.

Liz Cheney’s primary loss in her congressional house seat race was not a surprise, but the size of it (about 70-30) was. As the only major Republican politician leading a charge against Trump’s continuing lies about his loss in the 2020 Presidential election and spearheading the Congressional inquiry into the Jan. 6 insurrection and Trump’s role therein, Cheney had a Trump conservative target on her political back. But given her Republican genes and policy bonafides, one might have thought she still should have had a decent chance of winning. The size of her defeat simply underlines the Trump wing’s control of the Republican Party. But, she could have her revenge if she leads a 3rd party conservative ticket in the 2024 Presidential election, splitting the conservative vote and handing the election to the Democrats.

The Mar-A-Logo warrant backed search for documents held at Trump’s Florida residence is all about missing classified documents. It’s certainly true that nothing like this has ever happened to a former President before, so “yes” conspiracy-minded conservatives, Trump was treated differently by law enforcement authorities than other former Presidents. Why did the federal authorities pursue it with a search warrant? Because nobody in the military or intelligence communities, or anybody with half a brain and a care about our national security, trusts Trump with classified information. He’s a loose canon who views his own interests as paramount. Remember, he’s the President who held closed meetings with Russian President Putin with no other American present and no notes taken. But he was given plenty of notice and opportunity to disclose to federal authorities exactly what he possessed and to negotiate transfer and arrangements for using them, but he didn’t. Why? Because unlike almost any other former President, he continues to harbor a deep disdain for the federal government and believes himself largely above its laws. That’s why his supporters ginned up a loud complaint about continuing harassment of Trump by federal authorities, supported by their totally inept claim that Trump had automatically declassified any materials brought to Mar-A-Lago without going through any legally required declassification procedure. Who wins this legal and publicity battle will largely depend on what classified documents Trump was maintaining at his resort residence and what the redacted FBI affidavit shows about the reasons for the search. Criminal charges would be an extreme outcome of this investigation, and probably should not be unless something truly egregious is involved. Fights between former Presidents and the National Archives are not completely unusual, and should not, except in extremely serious circumstances, result in criminal charges.

The missing January 6 text messages are a big deal! One of the key issues about the Jan. 6 insurrection is why there was no National Guard backup for the Capitol Police on Jan. 6. They should have been at least on standby, if not on premises, from the outset given the information law enforcement authorities had about the march on the Capitol in the days before. During the insurrection, numerous frantic calls went out to the White House, the Defense Department and the Department of Homeland Security pleading for National Guard support which went unanswered for hours. Now, it seems all of the phone and text records of senior Trump officials at those departments ((as well as the records of the Secret Service) on that day have been intentionally eliminated. It seems logical to assume (and therefore highly likely) that these records would have demonstrated something that the Trump Administration didn’t want publicly known: to wit, that these officials were given orders from Trump himself not to interfere with the mob at the Capitol because they were doing Trump’s bidding. It is imperative that we get to the bottom of this issue as it could be the final piece of evidence needed to file criminal charges against him for seditious conspiracy which would probably be the most serious charge any of the investigations could lead to. If substantiated by compelling evidence, these charges must be brought to openly declare and prove that in the American democracy, nobody is above the law, including a former President.

The enactment of the Democrats’ climate bill (“Inflation Reduction Act”) earlier this month is a big step forward for this country and a major political victory for the Biden Administration. The earlier and much larger bill which contained billions of dollars for social programs in addition to an even larger climate change provisions was killed by unanimous Republican opposition and the opposition of Democrat Joe Manchin. The whole project seemed dead in the water (and with it, most of Biden’s aspirations to pass meaningful legislation). However, through quiet conversations between Biden and Manchin they managed to revive a much smaller but still very significant version of it (without most of the social provisions), and they got it through the Senate by hoodwinking Republican leader Mitch McConnell for once. This gives the Biden Administration and Democrats generally a significant and badly needed boost going into the mid-term elections later this year. It also shows the importance of flexibility and compromise if Congress is ever going to break through the existing partisan gridlock.

We have an overload of major problems facing our country and the world, including but not limited to an impending climate crisis of biblical proportions; a growing chasm of income inequality leaving millions unable to meet basic needs of food and shelter while the ultra rich luxuriate on their mega yachts; a very dangerous competition for world domination with Russia and China with an active proxy war going on in Ukraine; a culture and political war so deep, many believe civil war could break out; a public which is armed to the teeth with assault weapons supported by a political party which thinks armed neighbors are an effective means of public safety; a conservative Supreme Court which wants to eliminate all social, political and economic progress made in the last 75 or more years; and a political system so polarized it has rendered the federal government largely dysfunctional for the past generation.

In this situation, it is a breath of fresh air to hear about the impending likelihood of a new supposedly centrist political party being formed in the fall named “Forward”. According to newspaper reports at the end of July, this new party is being spearheaded by former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang and former Republican Governor of New Jersey Christine Todd Whitman. It involves a merger of the “Renew America Movement” formed in 2021 by “dozens” of former Republican officials in the Reagan, Bush I and II, and Trump Administrations, Yang’s “Forward” party, and the “Serve America Movement” which is a group of Democrats, Republicans and Independents founded by former Republican Congressman David Jolly. Although it is too early to tell how much of an impact this new political party could have, it will be a major blessing if it undermines what remains of the Republican Party under Donald Trump. Liz Cheney would probably be a great fit for this new party as one of its leaders!

The Republican Party, led initially by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, has been vilifying the Democratic Party for over 30 years in apocalyptic terms, has been actively blocking virtually all Democratic legislative initiatives for the last 20 years (with the exception of this year’s infrastructure bill), has blocked any action on the ugly and tragic gun culture in this country, has failed and refused to do anything about the looming climate cataclysm, refuses to recognize or deal with the dangerous and growing problem of income inequality, and intentionally keeps reducing federal tax revenues in order to undermine the federal government’s ability to enact social programs. The Republican Party has been largely captured by radical conservatives, evangelicals and macho white nationalists. A majority of them still support Donald Trump, who was hands down the worst U.S. president in history. They are unable to differentiate truth from falsehood, consumed by conspiracy theories, and believe that the last election was stolen from Donald Trump. Because of the latter believed falsehood, they are actively passing laws at the state level to make it more difficult for everyone to vote except their own supporters. The Republican Party also thinks everyone should carry a concealed weapon and be subject to the moral authority of some church (how they square those two ideas is beyond human comprehension). The Republican Party claims to be the party of individual liberty and freedom from government interference except when it comes to women and abortion. The Republican Party does not believe the federal government is a force for good, except for the Defense Department, and have actively worked for the past 30 years to undermine its effective functioning.

The Republican Party has been unable to reform itself and ceased some time ago to be a positive force in this country. The few remaining good leaders in the party need to abandon it instead of tacitly helping the Trump wing to flourish. The Republican Party needs to be replaced by a more responsible political party and we hope “Forward” is it.

The Democratic Party is better motivated to use the federal government in the public’s interest, but it also has serious flaws. It increasingly looks at all issues through identity group lenses – particularly race. That is a prescription for increasing friction among racial and other identity groups, not reducing them. A significant segment of the public already feels they have been disadvantaged by policies that benefitted other ethnic and racial groups. Adopting policies and programs that intentionally use race or ethnicity, rather than financial status, as a qualifying factor, as Democrats tend to do, will create problems, not solve them. The Democrats also need to learn more fiscal restraint – just throwing money at problems doesn’t always solve them and often leads to corruption and waste. A new more responsible, centrist political party will force the Democratic Party to moderate its more extreme ideas.

The next few months should be a barnburner! Hopefully, we’ll be on the outside and not the inside.

THT